By Serpil ACIKALIN
Thursday , 19 July 2007
It is not a secret that two Iraqi Kurdish leaders, Masoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, desire an extraordinary free autonomous or federal country (if not fully independent) for the Kurds in Iraq.
In the past, Mullah Moustafa Barzani, Masoud Barzani’s father, had established the first but short lived Kurdish State in 1946, Kurdish Madabad Republic. And today Masoud Barzani himself is looking to become great leader for the Kurds by establishing a permanent, large as possible and as possible independent Kurdish entity in the region. However Iraqi Kurds are not so lucky with regard to their neighbors, surrounded by the countries listed in President George W. Bush’s ‘axis of evil" speech, Syria to the west and Iran to the east. In addition to the problematic neighbors, Kurds live in such a country where many people are dying everyday because of the interminable conflict. In the North there are troublesome stirrings in the mountains on the border with Turkey. Turks are also not happy with Barzani’s and Talabani’s independence dreams, and the Turks are strong enough to prevent Iraqi Kurdish separatists.
From this point it seems that the most likely the only country is Turkey which can prevent achieving an independent or autonomous or independent Kurdish State and Barzani is too aware of this basic fact. He thinks that if he can keep Turkey from acting at least for a short time his independent or autonomous Kurdish State dream may become real. U.S support for Barzani and PKK terrorism both are the most crucial tools in Barzani’s Turkey plans.
After the 2003 invasion, the U.S. could not find any reliable ally in Iraq but the Kurds, and in return the Americans provided an explicit support for them. In this process, the Kurds basked in this situation. Furthermore, the US armed Kurdish Peshmerga guerrillas to play a role similar to that of an army. The Kurds helped a lot in American military operations and the Kurdish towns became the only relatively secure places for the Americans in Iraq. Kurds have been reliable partners for the Americans during the Iraqi occupation, however it is understood from the past experiments that the U.S. has not been a trustworthy partner for Iraqi Kurdish people. In the 1970s, 80s and the beginning of the 90s the US provoked Iraqi Kurdish rebellions by promising to help but in general Kurds were left in the lurch by the U.S.
When the Kurds were faced with the threat of annihilation in the wake of the First Gulf War, the U.S. did it again and left the Kurds alone before Saddam armies. Hereby, the only country has been Turkey which has not betrayed Iraqi Kurds in history and the recent debates in Washington DC vividly show that one more treason comes from the Americans.
The Democrats in the U.S. today see how American Iraq policy based on mainly Kurds has been unsuccessful and they say that these kind of policies will not be implemented when they get into power. This situation does not give any hope to Iraqi Kurds for their future. Similarly Baker and Hamilton Report criticized Bush for ignoring Turkey, Iraqi Turks and neighboring Iran and Syria.
Both Barzani and Talabani see the PKK as a card to be used against Turkey and believe that the PKK terrorism withholds Turkey from tackle with them. The Barzani group ignores the PKK activities and allows the 20 PKK armed camps in their region. The number of PKK militants based in Barzani territories has been reached 3500 in 2007, and these terrorists use Northern Iraq as a base to attack Turkey. It is obvious that Mr. Barzani considers the PKK as a tool which keeps Turkey busy outside of Barzani and Talabani towns. However such a policy has been undermining Turkish-Iraqi relations.
As a matter of fact that there is no consensus on Iraqi Kurdish issue and Barzani problem: The AK Party Government searched the ways for peaceful ways and focused on mainly the economic co-operation and diplomacy. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan made efforts to solve the problem by diplomatic negotiations with the US and Iraqi Kurds. However the military and some nationalist groups are not patient enough. The increasing number of martyred Turkish soldiers killed by the PKK terrorists from Barzani regions has increased the tension in Turkey against the Iraqi Kurdish leaders. Many people now blame the United States, Barzani and Talabani for the rocketing PKK terrorism. It is really difficult for any government to defend more friendly ways in dealing with the Iraqi Kurds as long as the Iraqi Kurds ignore the PKK terrorists in their territories. In another word the most mortal impact of Barzani’s risky PKK game is the growing mistrust among the Turkish people against the Iraqi Kurds. The public pressure forces to the Government and the Army for a possible cross-border military operation and many in Turkey defend that such an operation should not be only against the PKK but also the Barzani forces. Barzani and Talabani should win the hearts and brains of the Turkish people. Otherwise the PKK terrorism problem may become a Turkish-Iraqi Kurdish problem.
There are, of course, some understandable reasons for Barzani and Talabani’s ‘pro-PKK’ behavior. As a leader who has been one of the leaders subjected to the risk of annihilation under the Saddam Rule, the Iraqi Kurdish leaders are obsessive about the idea of security. They do not want to experience similar threats. However they should also notice that the Iraqi Kurds cannot guarantee their security by only getting the American or Israeli support. Without good relations with Turkey, both Barzani and Talabani will always feel the lasting threats. In fact, Turkey could be the guarantor for the survival of the Iraqi Kurds in the region. However as long as the PKK camps exist there Turkish contribution to the Iraqi Kurdish region will be limited. The PKK terrorism has a cost for the Kurdish leaders and the Kurdish people and inevitably they will see how much this cost is:
Apart from the security costs, the second vital cost will be seen in the economic area: Turkey is the seventeenth biggest economy in the World, the fifth biggest market in Europe and has a GDP exceeding 400 billion USD in 2007. Thus with the power of Turkey’s economy, Northern Iraq will also have more opportunity to gain more economic power than the rest of Iraq. Even under these problematic circumstances Turkish businessmen made about 5 billion USD worth of contracts in Northern Iraq, and foreign trade between Turkey and the region is about 2 billion USD. The figures prove that if the political problems are solved between Turkey and the Kurdish region it is possible that total amount of contracts, bilateral trade and direct investments will reach 10 billion USD and this integration with Turkey could give Northern Iraq a valuable alternative industry to oil industry. However with the PKK camps the Iraqi Kurds may lose the current gaining in relations with Turkey.
Thirdly, it is known that the only exit point from Northern Iraq in practice is Turkey, as Syria and Iran also have serious problems of their own on the border issues. Depending on to the solution to PKK problem, decision makers are looking to build an airport near Kurdish region as well as modernize the region’s railways and extend them from Turkey to Erbil. This means that by ignoring terrorist activities Barzani and Talabani are preventing the integration of Northern Iraq with rest of the region and the whole World.
Fourthly, there has not been any significant historical hostility between Turkey and the Kurds in the history. However, with each passing day the possibility of a total confrontation is increasing as the PKK problem continues and ignored by the Kurdish leaders. This may lead to the permanent hostilities in future and will not help the Iraqi Kurds as they already have many enemies in the region.
Fifthly, improved relations between Kurds and the US following the 2003 invasion increased the hostility between Kurds, the Arabs and Shias of Iraq and many of whom sought revenge against the Kurds. There is a possibility of spreading of conflicts to the North of the country. Kerkuk problem and the ignored rights of the Turkmen people in Northern Iraq may also trigger big conflicts in the North. In other words, the Kurds may find themselves at the heart of a bloody civil war. If they have a difficulty again Turkey could be one of the countries –if not be the only country- who may save the Kurds. Turkey may be a guarantor for the Kurds in the region and protect them from domestic and foreign threats but of course, this again depends on the existence of the PKK terrorists in the Northern Iraq. While the PKK deploys in the region it seems impossible for Turkey to be in the position of being guarantor for the Kurds. Besides, as long as Kurdish officials ignore Turkey’s warnings over Kerkuk, the Turkmens in the region and allows PKK activities, there will be always the possibility of a military confrontation.
Sixthly, Barzani and Talabani clearly declared that they can not defend the Turkish-Iraqi border because they have no enough power to tackle with the PKK terrorists. In this sense it is now increasingly said that the Iraqi side of the border must be protected by the Turkish military. Even some of the groups in Turkey are claiming that as Barzani is not governing the region in accordance with Turkish interests the other tribes should be supported by Turkey to bring down Barzani’s government. Although the Turkish government does not share the same idea, it is possible some of these groups might have the power to destabilize the region if the PKK insists on staying. Emerging of anti-Barzani or anti-Talabani groups in Turkey would not be wise for the Barzani and Talabani, and they should not nourish the mistrust among the Turks.
As can be seen from the above arguments, the existence of the PKK camps in the region comes at a higher price than supposed, and Barzani must choose the most advantageous way to secure the Iraqi Kurdish interests.
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/49635/what-is-the-cost-of-the-pkk-for-barzani.html/
19 July 2007
By Serpil ACIKALIN, U.S.A.K.
srpll@yahoo.com
Thursday , 19 July 2007
It is not a secret that two Iraqi Kurdish leaders, Masoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, desire an extraordinary free autonomous or federal country (if not fully independent) for the Kurds in Iraq.
In the past, Mullah Moustafa Barzani, Masoud Barzani’s father, had established the first but short lived Kurdish State in 1946, Kurdish Madabad Republic. And today Masoud Barzani himself is looking to become great leader for the Kurds by establishing a permanent, large as possible and as possible independent Kurdish entity in the region. However Iraqi Kurds are not so lucky with regard to their neighbors, surrounded by the countries listed in President George W. Bush’s ‘axis of evil" speech, Syria to the west and Iran to the east. In addition to the problematic neighbors, Kurds live in such a country where many people are dying everyday because of the interminable conflict. In the North there are troublesome stirrings in the mountains on the border with Turkey. Turks are also not happy with Barzani’s and Talabani’s independence dreams, and the Turks are strong enough to prevent Iraqi Kurdish separatists.
From this point it seems that the most likely the only country is Turkey which can prevent achieving an independent or autonomous or independent Kurdish State and Barzani is too aware of this basic fact. He thinks that if he can keep Turkey from acting at least for a short time his independent or autonomous Kurdish State dream may become real. U.S support for Barzani and PKK terrorism both are the most crucial tools in Barzani’s Turkey plans.
After the 2003 invasion, the U.S. could not find any reliable ally in Iraq but the Kurds, and in return the Americans provided an explicit support for them. In this process, the Kurds basked in this situation. Furthermore, the US armed Kurdish Peshmerga guerrillas to play a role similar to that of an army. The Kurds helped a lot in American military operations and the Kurdish towns became the only relatively secure places for the Americans in Iraq. Kurds have been reliable partners for the Americans during the Iraqi occupation, however it is understood from the past experiments that the U.S. has not been a trustworthy partner for Iraqi Kurdish people. In the 1970s, 80s and the beginning of the 90s the US provoked Iraqi Kurdish rebellions by promising to help but in general Kurds were left in the lurch by the U.S.
When the Kurds were faced with the threat of annihilation in the wake of the First Gulf War, the U.S. did it again and left the Kurds alone before Saddam armies. Hereby, the only country has been Turkey which has not betrayed Iraqi Kurds in history and the recent debates in Washington DC vividly show that one more treason comes from the Americans.
The Democrats in the U.S. today see how American Iraq policy based on mainly Kurds has been unsuccessful and they say that these kind of policies will not be implemented when they get into power. This situation does not give any hope to Iraqi Kurds for their future. Similarly Baker and Hamilton Report criticized Bush for ignoring Turkey, Iraqi Turks and neighboring Iran and Syria.
Both Barzani and Talabani see the PKK as a card to be used against Turkey and believe that the PKK terrorism withholds Turkey from tackle with them. The Barzani group ignores the PKK activities and allows the 20 PKK armed camps in their region. The number of PKK militants based in Barzani territories has been reached 3500 in 2007, and these terrorists use Northern Iraq as a base to attack Turkey. It is obvious that Mr. Barzani considers the PKK as a tool which keeps Turkey busy outside of Barzani and Talabani towns. However such a policy has been undermining Turkish-Iraqi relations.
As a matter of fact that there is no consensus on Iraqi Kurdish issue and Barzani problem: The AK Party Government searched the ways for peaceful ways and focused on mainly the economic co-operation and diplomacy. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan made efforts to solve the problem by diplomatic negotiations with the US and Iraqi Kurds. However the military and some nationalist groups are not patient enough. The increasing number of martyred Turkish soldiers killed by the PKK terrorists from Barzani regions has increased the tension in Turkey against the Iraqi Kurdish leaders. Many people now blame the United States, Barzani and Talabani for the rocketing PKK terrorism. It is really difficult for any government to defend more friendly ways in dealing with the Iraqi Kurds as long as the Iraqi Kurds ignore the PKK terrorists in their territories. In another word the most mortal impact of Barzani’s risky PKK game is the growing mistrust among the Turkish people against the Iraqi Kurds. The public pressure forces to the Government and the Army for a possible cross-border military operation and many in Turkey defend that such an operation should not be only against the PKK but also the Barzani forces. Barzani and Talabani should win the hearts and brains of the Turkish people. Otherwise the PKK terrorism problem may become a Turkish-Iraqi Kurdish problem.
There are, of course, some understandable reasons for Barzani and Talabani’s ‘pro-PKK’ behavior. As a leader who has been one of the leaders subjected to the risk of annihilation under the Saddam Rule, the Iraqi Kurdish leaders are obsessive about the idea of security. They do not want to experience similar threats. However they should also notice that the Iraqi Kurds cannot guarantee their security by only getting the American or Israeli support. Without good relations with Turkey, both Barzani and Talabani will always feel the lasting threats. In fact, Turkey could be the guarantor for the survival of the Iraqi Kurds in the region. However as long as the PKK camps exist there Turkish contribution to the Iraqi Kurdish region will be limited. The PKK terrorism has a cost for the Kurdish leaders and the Kurdish people and inevitably they will see how much this cost is:
Apart from the security costs, the second vital cost will be seen in the economic area: Turkey is the seventeenth biggest economy in the World, the fifth biggest market in Europe and has a GDP exceeding 400 billion USD in 2007. Thus with the power of Turkey’s economy, Northern Iraq will also have more opportunity to gain more economic power than the rest of Iraq. Even under these problematic circumstances Turkish businessmen made about 5 billion USD worth of contracts in Northern Iraq, and foreign trade between Turkey and the region is about 2 billion USD. The figures prove that if the political problems are solved between Turkey and the Kurdish region it is possible that total amount of contracts, bilateral trade and direct investments will reach 10 billion USD and this integration with Turkey could give Northern Iraq a valuable alternative industry to oil industry. However with the PKK camps the Iraqi Kurds may lose the current gaining in relations with Turkey.
Thirdly, it is known that the only exit point from Northern Iraq in practice is Turkey, as Syria and Iran also have serious problems of their own on the border issues. Depending on to the solution to PKK problem, decision makers are looking to build an airport near Kurdish region as well as modernize the region’s railways and extend them from Turkey to Erbil. This means that by ignoring terrorist activities Barzani and Talabani are preventing the integration of Northern Iraq with rest of the region and the whole World.
Fourthly, there has not been any significant historical hostility between Turkey and the Kurds in the history. However, with each passing day the possibility of a total confrontation is increasing as the PKK problem continues and ignored by the Kurdish leaders. This may lead to the permanent hostilities in future and will not help the Iraqi Kurds as they already have many enemies in the region.
Fifthly, improved relations between Kurds and the US following the 2003 invasion increased the hostility between Kurds, the Arabs and Shias of Iraq and many of whom sought revenge against the Kurds. There is a possibility of spreading of conflicts to the North of the country. Kerkuk problem and the ignored rights of the Turkmen people in Northern Iraq may also trigger big conflicts in the North. In other words, the Kurds may find themselves at the heart of a bloody civil war. If they have a difficulty again Turkey could be one of the countries –if not be the only country- who may save the Kurds. Turkey may be a guarantor for the Kurds in the region and protect them from domestic and foreign threats but of course, this again depends on the existence of the PKK terrorists in the Northern Iraq. While the PKK deploys in the region it seems impossible for Turkey to be in the position of being guarantor for the Kurds. Besides, as long as Kurdish officials ignore Turkey’s warnings over Kerkuk, the Turkmens in the region and allows PKK activities, there will be always the possibility of a military confrontation.
Sixthly, Barzani and Talabani clearly declared that they can not defend the Turkish-Iraqi border because they have no enough power to tackle with the PKK terrorists. In this sense it is now increasingly said that the Iraqi side of the border must be protected by the Turkish military. Even some of the groups in Turkey are claiming that as Barzani is not governing the region in accordance with Turkish interests the other tribes should be supported by Turkey to bring down Barzani’s government. Although the Turkish government does not share the same idea, it is possible some of these groups might have the power to destabilize the region if the PKK insists on staying. Emerging of anti-Barzani or anti-Talabani groups in Turkey would not be wise for the Barzani and Talabani, and they should not nourish the mistrust among the Turks.
As can be seen from the above arguments, the existence of the PKK camps in the region comes at a higher price than supposed, and Barzani must choose the most advantageous way to secure the Iraqi Kurdish interests.
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/49635/what-is-the-cost-of-the-pkk-for-barzani.html/
19 July 2007
By Serpil ACIKALIN, U.S.A.K.
srpll@yahoo.com
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